Monthly Outlook

A colder spell remains at first, along with changeable and breezy conditions.

Things will settle down at some point early next week, along with quickly rising temperatures, which will at times be well above average. However, it is likely that changeable and windy conditions will return across the board.

Later on, a colder risk appears again.

Colder at first

Saturday looks rather changeable and chilly, with spells of rain or showers which will be wintry on higher ground, especially across Scotland.

After a quite chilly, if not frosty, Saturday night, mainly across parts of Northern England and eastern Scotland, conditions will be generally drier and calmer on Sunday, which is related to a flat and temporary high-pressure ridge moving over the UK.

A new low pressure will follow soon after towards the beginning of next week, bringing new spells of rain, heavy in places and still wintry on higher ground in Scotland. Nevertheless, temperatures should start to rise from the south-west.

A stronger high pressure ridge could move across the UK and towards the North Sea and Fennoscandia around the middle of next week. After a short period of drier and calmer conditions, new low-pressure systems will move in from the south and south-west, leading to heavy rain or showers with a risk of thunderstorms.

Due to a southeast to southerly flow, temperatures could rise well above average, more so in England and Wales.

Later next week, there is a greater chance of changeable and increasingly windy conditions in the UK, with low pressure systems approaching from the central North Atlantic and a cooling trend. However, temperatures could remain slightly above average, especially further south and south-east.

Still a little warmer

In the last week of October, long range weather forecast models still differ to some extent.

Nevertheless, there are some indications that the high pressure could move near the United Kingdom or over western continental Europe for a period of time, which could generally mean milder and more settled conditions.

However, there is still a possibility that the high pressure will be more over the eastern North Atlantic or Fennoscandia. In view of this, low pressure systems could continue to approach from the central North Atlantic.

Temperatures in the UK are likely to remain slightly above average, with an average south-west to westerly flow. It could remain wetter and windier across much of the UK. The eastern and south-eastern parts could be a little drier and calmer at times.

A colder risk

As October draws to a close and into November, the high pressure could move to the far north-west of Europe, namely near or over parts of Greenland, while the low pressure systems are shifting further east and south-east, which could bring a colder and brisk north-west to northerly flow back to Britain.

There are still other possible outcomes, but temperatures are likely to gradually fall to around average or even slightly below in early November, with a sharper decline probable in Scotland.

It could remain a bit wetter and windier across much of the UK, with showery conditions and wintry precipitation on higher ground. However, north-western parts may see somewhat drier conditions.

The outlook in the middle of the week could provide additional insights into the expected weather conditions until the end of October and into November. The predicted colder risk is still questionable, but noteworthy.