Could Wales finally get some money from HS2?

Pardon the puns, but the discussion over whether Wales should get its share of funding for the HS2 high-speed rail line is building up a head of steam.

The Welsh government is pushing hard for extra cash, having hit the buffers so far.

And now the Treasury at Westminster, which along with Chancellor Rachel Reeves will ultimately make any decision, appears to have changed its language.

The Budget – when any decision might be announced – is fast approaching on 30 October, and with it the possibility for a major Welsh political argument to be settled.

In short the controversy centres around this: HS2 is deemed to be an England-and-Wales project, so Wales gets no extra cash, which would be the case if it was England-only.

Making matters worse for those who claim that this is unfair, is that not a single centimetre of high-speed track will be built in Wales.

In May, the Senedd unanimously backed Wales getting its fair share of funding – putting the Welsh Conservatives at odds with their colleagues in the previous UK Tory government.

So what about the Treasury? Back in September they ruled out reclassification of HS2.

A spokesperson told WalesOnline’s Political Editor Ruth Mosalski: "We will not revisit the classification and we will not therefore adjust their Barnett funding."

Barnett is the name given to the formula used to work out the amount given to Wales for England-only extra spending.

On Thursday, that strong stance was missing from a statement they gave us here at BBC Wales.

A spokesperson said: "The new government is committed to resetting relationships with the devolved governments and will work closely with them on rail in Wales.

"The UK government is responsible for heavy rail infrastructure across England and Wales, improving transport connectivity and services for people. That means the UK government spends money on this in Wales rather than funding the Welsh government to do so."

The backdrop to this is a concerted campaign behind the scenes by the Welsh government with their UK counterparts.

The First Minister Eluned Morgan and Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford have also spoken publicly – often and at length – in the past few weeks about HS2 and the need to find in Drakeford’s words “a sensible and pragmatic conclusion".

Welsh government, I am told, is "very hopeful" that their efforts will pay off.

Politically, both governments need to come good on the general election pledge that two Labour governments would be better for Wales.

But this is fraught - HS2 has taken on a huge symbolic as well as financial significance.

And an announcement in the Budget would not necessarily mean we have arrived at our final destination.

Previously, Welsh Labour politicians - including the current Secretary of State for Wales Jo Stevens – have pushed for Wales to receive billions of pounds of consequential funding, and the Welsh government even considered but abandoned plans to take legal action to get it.

But back in June the finance secretary at the time Rebecca Evans announced Welsh ministers had recalculated what they’re owed to a much lower £350m.

This was based on funding spent and committed to so far, rather than the scheme in its entirety.

So if Rachel Reeves relents and releases £350m the Welsh government will claim a win; but opposition parties will say Wales continues to be short-changed.

After such a big effort, a failure to persuade Reeves would be even more difficult for Welsh ministers.

That this much level of conversation has taken place is in itself quite a thing given the strains of the previous UK-Welsh government relationship.

But ultimately if you’re really looking forward to getting somewhere, it’s perhaps the quality of the destination rather than the journey there that will count.